Lightspeed's Slow Start

Business Week Online

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Despite AT&T proclaiming that it will pump $4.6 billion into building enough fiber-optic cable and supporting technology to reach 19 million homes by the end of 2008, many to believe that AT&T will have a hard time cornering the internet/TV market as soon as they claim.


Technology glitches hobbled the rollout of Lightspeed last year. And though the TV service is up and running in fewer than a dozen markets with prices that undercut cable bills, a growing chorus of rivals, analysts, and engineers are skeptical that the network will offer enough bandwidth a few years from now to handle phone service, high-speed Internet, and multiple streams of high-definition TV.

Other operators have taken advantage of this slow start. Verizon is placing the most ambitious and risky bet. It plans to spend $18 billion—three times as much as AT&T—to lay fiber to every one of the 18 million homes it hopes to cover by 2010. AT&T is laying fiber into neighborhoods but is using existing copper phone lines to carry video the last few thousand feet. As a result, it will cost Verizon $1,750 to connect each home, vs. $450 for AT&T. Despite the higher price tag, ubs Investment Research expects Verizon to produce a return on its investment by 2011. The reason? It believes the Verizon network's higher bandwidth will lure more phone, Internet, and video customers—at higher prices—and thus generate about four times as much revenue as Lightspeed. On Jan. 29, Verizon backed up the theory when it announced that it ended its first full year of operations with 207,000 TV customers, representing 9% of the 2.4 million homes capable of receiving its video service in 2006. Just a few months ago, the company was hoping to finish 2006 with 175,000 video customers.

Doubts about AT&T's video project are fueling speculation it will have to buy one of the two U.S. satellite operators, DirecTV Group Inc. (DTV ) or EchoStar Communications Corp.(DISH ), to accelerate delivery of TV service.

AT&T remain confident in their decision to bet on a system that's more technically complex than Verizon's, arguing it will result in a TV service superior to anything else on the market.